Бюллетень Московского общества испытателей природы. Отдел биологический
Bulletin of Moscow Society of Naturalists.<br /> Biological Series
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2026. T. 131. Vyp. 1.
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2026. T. 131. Vyp. 1.

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DOI: 10.55959/MSU0027-1403-BB-2026-131-1-13-22

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Authors:

Erdakov L.N., Ravkin Y.S.

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Keywords:

moor frog, numbers, perennial cycles, a spectrum of rhythms, temporary organization, harmonic, periodic component, frequency strip, period, value and power of periodic components

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Erdakov L.N., Ravkin Y.S., Cyclicity of long-term fluctuations in moor frog populations // Byul. MOIP. Otd. biol. 2026. T. 131. Vyp. 1. S. 13-22

Cyclicity of long-term fluctuations in moor frog populations

The long-term dynamics of the moor frog population was studied for the presence of cyclicity, which is characteristic of almost any animal species. Latent periodic components were identified and estimated using a modified Pronya leastsquares method for three geographic regions: the Novosibirsk Akademgorodok; throughout Western Siberia; the Zvenigorod Biological Station of Moscow State University; and the Kivach Nature Reserve. Long-term (15 to 50-year) observation series were used. The characteristics of the fluctuations and some parameters of the oscillations were determined for the studied areas. All geographic populations are characterized by spectra of 6–9 periodic components in identical frequency bands. These are 5.2, 4.2, 3.5, and 2.3-year cycles at high frequencies, 7.5 and 1012 years at medium frequencies, and 20–40 years at low frequencies. Harmonics in the low-frequency part of the spectrum most often dominate in power, but there are exceptions (at the Zvenigorod station, a 4–5-year cycle dominated). The spectra of long-term rhythm dynamics apparently exhibit specific features. This is evidenced by the pronounced differences in the strength of identical cycles in different areas.

References

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  • Ginzburg L., Colyvan M. Ecological Orbits: How Planets Move And Populations Grow. N.Y., 2004. 166 p.
  • Hammer Ø., Harper D.A.T., Ryan P.D. Past: Paleontological Statistics Software Package for Education and Data Analysis // Palaeontologia Electronica. 2001. Vol. 4. N 1. P. 1–9.
  • Kutenkov A.P., Mosiyash S.S. On the dynamics of population of common frog (Rana temporaria) in the NorthWest of Russia // Russian journal of herpetology. 2000. Vol. 7. N 2. P. 123–134.
  • Kutenkov A.P., Panarin A.E. Ecology and status of populations of the common frog (Rana temporaria) and the moor frog (Rana arvalis) in northwestern Russia with notes on their distribution in Fennoscandia // Amphibian populations in the Commonwealth of Independence States: current status and declines. Moscow: Pensoft. 1995. P. 64–70.
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  • Meyer A., Schmidt В., Grossenbacher K. Analysis of three amphibian populations with quarter-century long time-series // Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Ser. B. 1998. Vol. 265. P. 523–528.
  • Pellet J., Schmidt B.R., Fivaz F., Perrin N., Grossenbacher K. Density, climate and varying return points: an analysis of long-term population fluctuations in the threatened Europaean tree frog // Oecologia.2006. Vol. 149. P. 65–71 (https://doi.org/10.1007/S00442-006-0432-1).
  • Stenseth NC., Ottersen G., Hurrell JW., Mysterud A., Lima M., Chan KS., Yoccoz NG., Adlandsvik B. Studying climate effects on ecology through the use of climate indices: the North Atlantic Oscillation, El Niño Southern Oscillation and beyond. // Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Ser. B. 2003. Vol. 270. P. 2087–2096 (https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2003.2415).

Список литературы

  • Ardashev A.A, Molotkov V.E. The intrapopulation mechanisms of cyclic fluctuations of the salmon shoal quantity (the physiological aspects) // Vestnik DVO RAN. 2004. N 5. P. 14–18 (In Russ.)
  • Bobreczov A.V., Beshkarev A.B., Basov V.A., Vasil`ev A.G., Efimov V.M., Kudryavceva E.N., Megalinskaya I.Z., Nejfel`d N.D., Sokol`skij S.M., Teplov V.V., Teplova V.P. Zakonomernosti poluvekovoj dinamiki bioty devstvennoj tajgi Severnogo Predural`ya. Syktyvkar: Goskomstat Respubliki Komi, 2000. 206 p. (In Russ.)
  • Erdakov L.N. Biologicheskie ritmy i principy sinxronizacii v ekologicheskih sistemah (hronoekologiya). Tomsk, 1991. 216 p. (In Russ.)
  • Erdakov L.N. Biologicheskie ritmy: osob`, populyaciya, soobshhestvo. Ciklichnost` v zhivyh sistemah. Lap Lambert Academic Publishing, 2011. 152 p. (In Russ.)
  • Erdakov L.N. Biological Rhythms in Population Regulation (to Discussion) // Uspehi sovremennoj biologii. 2018. Vol. 138. N. 2. P. 1–9 (In Russ.)
  • Erdakov L.N. Long-term cycles in animal populations. M., 2021. 658 p. (In Russ.)
  • Ishhenko V.G. Life-time reproductive success and structure of population of moor frog, Rana arvalis Nilss., 1842. The non-traditional decision of general problem // Sovremennaya gerpetologiya. 2007. Vol. 7. Iss. 1–2. P. 76–87 (In Russ.)
  • Ishhenko V.G., Ledenczov A.V. Vliyanie uslovij sredy na dinamiku vozrastnoj struktury populyacii ostromordoj lyagushki // Vliyanie uslovij sredy na dinamiku struktury i chislennosti populyacij zhivotnyh. Sverdlovsk, 1987. P. 40–51. (In Russ.)
  • Kutenkov A.P. O dinamike chislennosti travyanoj (Rana temporaria) i ostromordoj (R. arvalis) lyagushek // Trudy Gosudarstvennogo prirodnogo zapovednika «Kivach». Petrozavodsk. 2016. Iss. 7. P. 128–141 (In Russ.)
  • Lyapkov S.M., Cherdantsev V.G., Cherdantsev E.M. Structure of relationship between fitness components in life history of Rana arvalis. 1. Dynamics of reproductive effort and its components // Zoologicheskiy zhurnal. 2001. Vol. 80. Iss. 4. P. 438-446. (In Russ.)
  • Lyapkov S.M., Ibragimova D.V., Nakonechnyi N.V. The age composition and postmetamorphic growth characteristics of the moor frog (Rana arvalis) from habitats with a short activity season // Izvestiya RAN. Seriya biologicheskaya. 2022. N 4. P, 374–384 (In Russ.)
    (https://doi.org/10.31857/S1026347022040096).
  • Lyapkov S.M. Age composition and growth characteristics of Rana temporaria from populations with extremally short activity season // Izvestiya vysshih uchebnyh zavedenij. Povolzhskij region. Estestvennye nauki. 2019. N 1 (25). P. 94–101 (In Russ.)
    (https://doi.org/10.21685/23079150-2019-1-10).
  • Martynyuk V.S. Kosmicheskie i geofi zicheskie processy i biologicheskie ritmy // Sbornik tezisov IX Mezhdunarodnoy krymskoy konferentsii «Kosmsos i biosfera» (In Russ.). Accessed at: https://www.biophys.ru/archive/crimea2011/absr-p41.pdf (accessed on: 30.09.2025).
  • Martynyuk V.S, Vladimirskij B.M, Temur`yancz N.A. Biologicheskie ritmy i elektromagnitnye polya sredy obitaniya // Geofi zicheskiye protsessy i biosfera. 2006. Vol. 5. N 1. P. 5–23 (In Russ.)
  • Nikitin A.Ya., Grechanyj G.V., Korzun V.M., Sosunova I.A., Vershinin E.A., Nechaeva L.K. Dve koncepcii mehanizmov dinamiki chislennosti populyacij: metodologiya vybora // Uspehi sovremennogo estestvoznaniya. 2005. N 3. P. 45–46 (In Russ.)
  • Novikov E.A, Panov V.V, Moshkin M.P. Density-dependent regulation in populations of red-backed voles (Myodes rutilus) in optimal and suboptimal habitats of South-West Siberia // Zhurnal obshej biologii. 2012. Vol. 73. N 1. P. 49–58 (In Russ.)
  • Ozhiganova E.М. Straus Howe Generational Theory. Opportunities of Practical Application // Biznes, obrazovanie v ekonomike znanij. 2015, N 1. P. 94–97 (In Russ.)
  • Ravkin Yu.S., Erdakov L.N., Tsybulin S.М., Chesnokova S.V., Lyalina М.I. Spatial-temporal heterogeneity of amfibian assemblages in Western Siberia // Printsipy ekologii. 2025. Vol. 17. N 1. P. 3–24 (In Russ.)
  • Sychev A.A. Snegin E.A. The fertility and effective number of populations Helicopsis striata Müller (Gastropoda, Pulmonata, Helicoidea) on the territory of south the Midd-russian Upland // Nauchnye vedomosti. Seriya Estestvennye nauki. 2014. N 23 (194). P. 76–83 (In Russ.)
  • Tarnovsky A.V., Erdakov L.E., Litvinov Yu.N. Practical application of the modified Prony least squares method for modelling of short time series // Vestnik Irkutskoy gosudarstvennoy sel’skokhozyaystvennoy akademii. 2019. Iss. 92. P. 131–147 (In Russ.)
  • Waddington C.H. Basic biological concepts. Towards theoretical biology. I. Prolegomena / Astaurov B.L. ed., S.G.Vaseczkij transl. from English. Moscow: Мir. 1970. Р. 11–38 (In Russ.)
  • Tsybulin S.M. Ptitsy Altaya. Novosibirsk, 2009. 234 p.
  • Ginzburg L., Colyvan M. Ecological Orbits: How Planets Move And Populations Grow. N.Y., 2004. 166 p.
  • Hammer Ø., Harper D.A.T., Ryan P.D. Past: Paleontological Statistics Software Package for Education and Data Analysis // Palaeontologia Electronica. 2001. Vol. 4. N 1. P. 1–9.
  • Kutenkov A.P., Mosiyash S.S. On the dynamics of population of common frog (Rana temporaria) in the NorthWest of Russia // Russian journal of herpetology. 2000. Vol. 7. N 2. P. 123–134.
  • Kutenkov A.P., Panarin A.E. Ecology and status of populations of the common frog (Rana temporaria) and the moor frog (Rana arvalis) in northwestern Russia with notes on their distribution in Fennoscandia // Amphibian populations in the Commonwealth of Independence States: current status and declines. Moscow: Pensoft. 1995. P. 64–70.
  • Lebreton J.D. Dynamical and statistic al models of vertebrate population dynamics // Comptes Rendus Biologies. 2006. Vol. 329. N 10. P. 804–812 (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crvi.2006.06.007).
  • Meyer A., Schmidt В., Grossenbacher K. Analysis of three amphibian populations with quarter-century long time-series // Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Ser. B. 1998. Vol. 265. P. 523–528.
  • Pellet J., Schmidt B.R., Fivaz F., Perrin N., Grossenbacher K. Density, climate and varying return points: an analysis of long-term population fluctuations in the threatened Europaean tree frog // Oecologia.2006. Vol. 149. P. 65–71 (https://doi.org/10.1007/S00442-006-0432-1).
  • Stenseth NC., Ottersen G., Hurrell JW., Mysterud A., Lima M., Chan KS., Yoccoz NG., Adlandsvik B. Studying climate effects on ecology through the use of climate indices: the North Atlantic Oscillation, El Niño Southern Oscillation and beyond. // Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Ser. B. 2003. Vol. 270. P. 2087–2096 (https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2003.2415).

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Bulletin of the MOIP (ed. biol.) It is not included in the Web of Science Core Collection, but is indexed in five Thomson Reuters products on the Web of Science platform — Russian Science Citation Index, BIOSIS Previews, BIOSIS Citation Index, Biological Abstracts, Zoological Record.

The Bulletin of the MOIP (otd. biol.) is one of the journals from the RSCI list, and therefore, according to the Recommendations of the Higher Attestation Commission of 10/26/2022 (item 5), it is equated to the journals of the Higher Attestation Commission List from K1.